Wisconsin Supreme Court Race: A 2025 Litmus Test for Trump’s Term and Voter Sentiment.
As of March 27, 2025, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, set for April 1, has emerged as a pivotal political battleground, offering an early glimpse into how voters are responding to President Donald Trump’s second term, which began in January. This race, pitting conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel against liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, is more than a judicial contest—it’s a referendum on Trump’s influence and the polarizing role of billionaire Elon Musk in American politics. With the court’s ideological balance hanging in the balance, the outcome could reshape Wisconsin’s legal landscape on issues like abortion, voting rights, and congressional redistricting, making it a critical test of public sentiment in a swing state that Trump narrowly won in November 2024.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court currently holds a fragile 4-3 liberal majority, established in 2023 after a landmark election driven by abortion rights debates post-Roe v. Wade. A Schimel victory would flip the court to a conservative majority, potentially locking in Trump-aligned policies for a decade, given the 10-year term at stake. Conversely, a Crawford win would preserve liberal control, possibly enabling Democrats to challenge the state’s Republican-drawn congressional maps—maps that currently favor the GOP with six of eight U.S. House seats. This redistricting power has fueled intense national interest, as it could shift the balance of Congress and hinder Trump’s legislative agenda.
Money is pouring into this race at an unprecedented rate, shattering records for state judicial elections. By today’s date, total spending has exceeded $76 million, with Musk alone contributing over $18 million through his America PAC and related groups to back Schimel. His involvement includes controversial tactics, like offering $100 to Wisconsin voters who sign a petition opposing “activist judges,” a move critics call a veiled vote-buying scheme. On the liberal side, donors like George Soros and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have funneled millions to Crawford, who has raised over $26 million independently. This financial arms race underscores the race’s national significance, transforming a traditionally low-key spring election into a proxy war between partisan titans.
Voter sentiment toward Trump’s early term is a key undercurrent. Since taking office, Trump has pushed aggressive policies—tariffs, federal agency cuts via Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and government downsizing—that have sparked both enthusiasm and backlash. In Wisconsin, early voting, which began March 18, shows a 48% surge in ballots cast compared to the 2023 Supreme Court race, hinting at heightened engagement. Interviews with voters reveal a split: some, like Republican Mike Moeller of Waukesha, support Schimel to bolster Trump’s agenda, while others, like independent Deb Kohler of Milwaukee, resent Musk’s outsized influence and favor Crawford as a counterweight.
The candidates’ campaigns reflect these divides. Schimel, a former state attorney general endorsed by Trump and joined by Donald Trump Jr. at rallies, leans on his law-and-order record, promising to uphold conservative values and “protect the Trump agenda,” as ads proclaim. Crawford, backed by all four liberal justices and Democratic grassroots, frames the race as a stand against Musk’s “billionaire takeover” of democracy, emphasizing judicial independence and reproductive rights. Both sides are micro-targeting voters—Republicans aim to mobilize Trump’s November base, while Democrats host “People vs. Musk” town halls to energize progressives and independents wary of Trump’s early moves.
Beyond the courtroom, the election’s outcome could ripple into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race. A conservative court might cement voting restrictions, like a proposed constitutional amendment for photo ID requirements also on the April 1 ballot, while a liberal court could expand ballot access and redraw maps to favor Democrats. Political analysts see this as a test of whether Trump’s 2024 momentum holds without his name on the ticket, and whether Democrats can capitalize on voter fatigue or discontent with Musk’s federal overhauls, which have slashed thousands of jobs. Turnout, historically low in spring elections, will be decisive—experts predict a record-breaking 43% if momentum persists.
In a state where Trump won by less than 1% in 2024, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a microcosm of America’s polarized politics in 2025. It’s a clash of ideology, money, and power, with Trump and Musk betting on Schimel to extend their influence, and Democrats banking on Crawford to blunt it. As ballots are counted next week, the result will signal whether Trump’s second term is galvanizing his base or igniting a backlash—and whether Wisconsin remains a battleground where every vote reshapes the future.
